Crude Oil Rises for Two Consecutive Days, Metals Show Mixed Performance, Alumina Gains Over 1%, SHFE Gold Surges! [Overnight Market]

SMM March 21 News: In the metals market, domestic market metals showed mixed performance overnight, while overseas market metals generally fell. SHFE tin rose 0.76%, and SHFE zinc increased 0.34%. SHFE lead dropped 0.51%. LME tin led the gains with a 1% increase, LME lead fell 1.75%, and LME nickel declined 1.12%. LME copper decreased 0.78%, with other metals showing relatively small fluctuations. Alumina main contract rose 1.17%. The ferrous metals series also showed mixed performance, with iron ore falling 0.07% and stainless steel rising 0.04%. Rebar increased 0.32%, while in the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 0.49% and coke dropped 0.35%. In precious metals, COMEX gold surged to a record high of $3,065.2 per ounce on March 20 before pulling back, closing up 0.38%. However, gold maintained a bullish outlook, driven by the US Fed's indication of potential interest rate cuts and ongoing economic uncertainties. COMEX silver fell 0.26%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.34%, reaching a new historical high of 711.24 yuan/gram. SHFE silver dropped 0.31%. As of 8:08 am on March 21, the overnight closing prices from last Friday. For more details, check the SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the State, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission Xi Jinping emphasized during his recent field trip to Yunnan that Yunnan should earnestly implement the strategic deployment of the CPC Central Committee on the development of the western region and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, adhere to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, focus on promoting high-quality development, liberate thinking, innovate and reform, strive for progress, and work hard to create a new situation for Yunnan's development in the process of Chinese-style modernization. Premier of the State Council Li Qiang conducted a survey in Fujian from March 18 to 20. He stressed the need to thoroughly implement the important speeches made by President Xi Jinping during the Two Sessions, earnestly fulfill the tasks set out at the Two Sessions, face various unstable and uncertain factors, remain confident, overcome difficulties, and make efforts to stabilize foreign trade with an innovative spirit, accelerating the construction of new advantages for a high-level opening-up. Li Qiang pointed out that China will further open up the service sector, actively align with international high-standard economic and trade rules, leverage the role of free trade zones, and continuously release the potential of service trade. Efforts will be made to attract and stabilize investment, better supporting the development of foreign-funded enterprises. On the US dollar, the dollar rose 0.33% overnight, marking two consecutive days of gains, after the US Fed stated that it was not in a hurry to cut interest rates further this year due to uncertainty over US tariff policies. US policymakers kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and indicated that they would cut rates twice later this year, each by 25 basis points, consistent with forecasts three months ago. Fed Chairman Powell said, "We are not in a rush to act." Powell's remarks and the Fed's statement highlighted the challenges faced by policymakers in dealing with the impact of the US government's plans to impose tariffs on products from its trading partners. Data on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims in the US slightly increased, suggesting a steady labor market in March. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 69 basis points this year—at least two cuts, each by 25 basis points, with a July cut already fully priced in. In other currencies, the broad strength of the dollar weighed on the pound, but the pound narrowed its losses after the Bank of England's decision. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4.5% and warned against assuming future rate cuts, given the severe uncertainties facing the UK and global economies. The pound rose to a four-month high of $1.3015 against the dollar in Asian trading before retreating, ending the New York session down 0.3% at $1.29665. The Swiss franc fell 0.5% against the dollar after the Swiss National Bank cut its main interest rate to just above zero, noting greater uncertainty about the global impact of US trade policy. The yen slipped to 148.79 against the dollar, following the Bank of Japan's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and warning of heightened global economic uncertainty, indicating that further rate hikes would depend on the impact of US tariffs. The Australian dollar fell 0.9% to $0.6303, after Australia's February employment data unexpectedly declined, ending a strong growth trend, though the unemployment rate remained stable, and the overheated labor market eased. The New Zealand dollar dropped 0.9% to $0.5758, despite data showing that New Zealand's economy had emerged from recession, with a 0.7% growth rate in the previous quarter exceeding expectations, although underlying data remained weak. On the macro front, today will see the release of data including the total amount and high yield of the US 10-year TIPS auction on March 20, New Zealand's February trade balance, Japan's national core CPI for February, the UK's Gfk consumer confidence index for March, Canada's January core retail sales, and the preliminary value of the Eurozone's March consumer confidence index. Additionally, Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem will deliver a speech, and FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President John Williams will speak. In crude oil, both markets saw oil prices rise overnight, with US oil up 2.18% and Brent oil up 1.98%. This came after the US announced new Iran-related sanctions, overshadowing the impact of a strong dollar. OPEC+ released a new arrangement on Thursday, requiring seven member countries to further cut oil production to offset excess output, with the reduction exceeding the planned monthly increase starting next month. According to a table on the OPEC+ website, the monthly production cuts range from 189,000 to 435,000 barrels per day and will last until June 2026. Under the revised arrangement, Iraq will bear the brunt of the compensatory cuts, followed by Kazakhstan and Russia. Citi (CITI) said on Thursday that it expects crude oil prices to fall to $60-65 per barrel in H2 2025, a 15-20% decline. Citi anticipates that the price range for the rest of the year will drop by $15-20 to $60-75 per barrel, compared to the $70-90 range over the past three years. Data from Dutch consultancy Insights Global showed that diesel inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub fell by more than 4% in the week ending March 20, reaching their lowest level since mid-December.